Tim Cook has big shoes to fill and he can't do it by just pushing out snazzier versions of the iPhone or iPad. Apples newly minted CEO needs a revolutionary product to prove he has the chops to succeed Steve Jobs, and that may be a full-on assault on the living-room space by as early as 2013, analysts and industry experts say.
Jobs has called Apple TV-a 4-inchsquare box launched in 2006 that connects your plasma or LCD TV to the Web - a hobby, but it is also one of the rare missteps in the course of Apple's meteoric ascendance. If Cook can succeed where Jobs has failed, he would put to rest questions over whether he has the vision to lead Apple, in addition to widely respected operational skills.
"The TV is the obvious gap in Apple's product line up," CCS Insight's John Jackson said. "There's pressure to constantly innovate, (but) there's more than sufficient momentum at Apple right now that they don't need to reinvent the movie screen the TV, the car or the horse and buggy in the immediate term."
Getting Internet programming off computers and onto television sets has long been viewed as the next big thing for consumer technology companies, but none has succeeded so far with a product that has gained wide appeal. Cook and the $350 billion company he now leads would be jumping into a field crowded with Microsoft, Google, Sony and Samsung.
"The Holy Grail is the living room," said David Rolfe at Wedgewood Partners, which devotes 9.5% or about $1 billion of its portfolio to Apple. "They would get into it, only if they can make a significantly better product than what currently exists."
TV PROGRESS
It remains far from clear what Jobs-and now Cook-intends on the TV front. There are persistent rumors that Apple may produce an actual television to go along with content in an iTV, as part of the ongoing debate over whether the beleaguered television industry is ripe for an Apple-style shake-up. The current market offers a confusing array of options-from video streaming through game consoles like Microsoft's Xbox to Google-powered TV sets from Sony, Samsung and others.
Apple has "been the early follower in the iPad-tablet space, been the early follower in the music space, the early follower in the smartphone space," said independent digital media strategist Mark Mulligan. "They wait for a market to get primed, learn from the mistakes and then go and do everything better than anybody has done before."
Analysts estimate Apple takes roughly five years to develop a wholly new product, so either Jobs has already started down the TV road or Cook needs to start thinking now. Chief among the obstacles would be concerns in the entertainment industry about potentially aggressive video licensing terms that Apple would seek-and has gotten in the past for music and video licenses on iTunes.
Executives say Apple had asked for 30% of rental fees for iTunes, which is blamed for smothering the music recording industry.
CHARISMATIC PRESENCE
Jobs' charisma and negotiating power were crucial to the launch of iTunes in 2003 and the then-unprecedented sale of songs rather than albums on the Web. Cook remains untested on this front, despite his deft hand dealing with the supply chain partners that make Macs, iPhones and iPads. (Reuters)